The structure of the week
We start with what held, because that is where the week's information sits. The S&P 500 (SPY) slipped 0.43% on the week and is down 1.48% over four weeks, which is a mild decline. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) fell 0.76% on the week and 5.39% over four weeks, a clearly heavier decline. Underneath, the equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) rose 1.14% on the week and 2.57% over four weeks, and small caps (IWM) rose 1.96% on the week. The longer moving averages on both SPY and QQQ are still stacked with the fast averages above the slow ones. The higher-timeframe structure is therefore intact, while the weight of the large technology names is dragging the headline indices. We read that as a market under pressure at the top but not broken.
The rotation
The rotation is the clearest feature of the week. Cybersecurity (HACK) rose 9.17%, software (IGV) rose 5.99%, oil (USO) rose 4.80% and biotechnology (IBB) rose 2.85%. At the other end, China tech (KWEB) fell 5.20%, communication services (XLC) fell 4.36%, nuclear (NLR) fell 4.20%, gold (GLD) fell 4.03% and semiconductors (SOXX) fell 3.08%. Defensive and rate-sensitive areas also moved up, with long Treasuries (TLT) up 1.61%, health care (XLV) up 1.45% and utilities (XLU) up 0.83%. This is not a clean risk-on tape. Money is leaving semiconductors, nuclear and the large communication names, and moving into software, energy and a broader set of ordinary sectors. That is a rotation inside the market, not an exit from it.
One week against four
The comparison with the four-week trend is where the week becomes useful. Several moves continue the monthly direction. Oil rose 4.80% on the week after rising 14.29% over four weeks, and energy (XLE) shows the same pattern at 1.60% and 11.75%. Cybersecurity at 9.17% and 8.01% is a leadership that is still building. On the downside, semiconductors (SMH) fell 2.33% on the week after falling 13.08% over four weeks, and nuclear and SOXX fell with the same sign on both horizons. Other moves contradict the month. Memory (DRAM) rose 1.31% on the week but is down 23.99% over four weeks, and aerospace (UFO) rose 1.48% against a four-week fall of 8.47%. Artificial intelligence (AIQ) rose 0.44% against a four-week fall of 5.58%. Small caps (IWM) rose 1.96% on the week but fell 2.21% over four weeks, and biotechnology (IBB) rose 2.85% on the week but fell 0.97% over four weeks. We read these as bounces inside weaker trends, not turns. No sector rose over four weeks while falling this week, so there is no clear case of fading momentum in a rising trend.
The crypto divergence
Crypto leans the same way as the equity tape. The Bitcoin proxy (IBIT) fell 0.41% on the week and 3.38% over four weeks, and Bitcoin itself fell 0.96% and 3.83%. The weakness is deeper further along the risk curve: Ethereum fell 0.71% on the week and 10.99% over four weeks, and Solana fell 0.61% and 15.29%. Like technology and semiconductors, crypto is soft on the week and weaker over the month, while the equal-weight market and energy hold up. The swing low at 57,747.77 in Bitcoin is far below current price, so its structure has not been tested.
What would change this read
For the read to stop being valid, the large-cap structure would have to give way. For QQQ, that means the swing low at 661.14. For SPY, it means the swing low at 629.28. A break of either would turn a rotation into a loss of structure. In semiconductors, the swing low at 464.08 in SOXX is the level that separates a deep pullback from a damaged trend. If the equal-weight index stopped outperforming the cap-weighted one, the broadening part of this read would also weaken.